By Crisis Management Committee
In fact, the peak of the epidemic is retrospective information, that is, when we pass and get out of it, we will look back and be able to see that it has passed. That way it’s hard to say we’re at the peak. However, analyzing the available data we can say that, based on Brazil as a whole, we continue to have a trend of increase in the number of new cases of infected each week, that is, we continue to climb on the chart.
Already, if we analyze the number of deaths that occur per week in the country due to COVID-19, it is perceived that we are on a plateau, that is, we have maintained approximately the same average number of weekly deaths in the last 8 weeks, always with some slight variation from week to week, but with approximately the same average – although it is observed a slight trend of increase in the number of deaths in the last week – we are following in a line tending horizontally up there on the chart.
Source: Ministry of Health
The regions are at completely unequal moments of the epidemic. Thus, in view of the different states, some are in a tendency to decrease, others to stability and others, increasing the number of cases. But a positive aspect is the decrease in the number of new cases in some states.
It is also worth mentioning that reaching the “peak” of infection or being on a plateau are positive aspects on the one hand, but not so much on the other. The positive of the “peak” or “plateau at the peak” is that there is no longer the trend of progressive increase in the number of new cases or deaths. The downside is that this period is the most critical moment experienced so far in relation to the epidemic – we are up there on the chart, but we are not going down.
Worst case scenario
When we use the previous information to know how and how we need to protect ourselves, we need to understand that this is the worst case scenario so far – many people circulating with the virus, many new cases of infected every day and deaths occurring daily.
Social distancing, wearing masks and frequent hygiene of hands and surfaces, reliable and accessible testing of all suspected cases, restricted isolation of infected and sick people are the most significant measures to prevent the progression of the epidemic and we still have the vast majority of the population completely susceptible to infection.
A word of encouragement
So don’t be discouraged, but also be sure to take care of yourself. In many cases, unfortunately the resumption of the “normal” activities of everyday life is occurring for other reasons and pressures, and not because the epidemic is better controlled or because we are in a safer situation for this. So seek wisdom and discernment, we know it’s a very difficult time, but we still need to be careful.